Home - Key Questions - Key Questions: Mobile - Mobile Section 1

Mobile Section 1: Questions regarding the future demand for mobile communications

Question 1: Will the demand for mobile communications lead to a saturated market over the next five years?

In 1992 there were 250,000 GSM mobile phone users around the world. At the end of 1999 there were 250 million - a 1000 times increase over just eight years. Other 2G systems, such as PDC in Japan and TDMA ANSI-136 and CDMA ANSI-95 in the US and elsewhere, are experiencing the same kind of rapid growth. This meant that at the end of 1999, one in every 20 people in the world had a mobile phone.

In developed countries, the penetration for mobile phones at this time was on average 30-50 per cent. In the Nordic countries, which have the highest penetration rates in the world, the figure was between 60-70 per cent. So, in spite of, or perhaps as a result of, the current hype surrounding the mobile industry, we can ask whether the market will become saturated over the next five years.

Here, we have to change our notion of mobile communications from simple mobile telephony to mobile data terminals or even to mobile chips incorporated, for example, in many consumer electronic devices including those found in cars. In fact, many observers see a great opportunity opening up in the area of mobile internet. Instead of 'e-business', the term 'm-business' is increasingly used in Europe and Japan to refer to commerce over the mobile internet.

Even Bill Gates is quoted as saying that he changed Microsoft's mission statement from: "A computer on every desk and in every home" to "Empower people through great software any time, any place and on any device". By this, one can say that he discarded the notion of the PC and that in the future Microsoft software will be increasingly used within mobile devices.

Will the 3G mobile system open up new opportunities for major growth in mobile communications due to its higher data speed of up to 2 megabits per second or will voice be sufficient for most people?

The success of NTT DoCoMo's 'i-mode' terminal suggests that a new application area is indeed opening up. It is a mobile internet terminal enabling access to specially designed web sites (for usage figures see Technical features that characterise mobile communications - part 3).

A somewhat 'hidden' characteristic of the 3G system, besides its high speed data rate is its location identification capability, enabling a 3G terminal to be located to within a radius of some 100 to 200 metres. This was originally a requirement specified by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) of the US to locate a user making an emergency call. Many industry analysts foresee new applications being created around this Global Positioning System type capability.

If you wish to express your views on questions such as these go to the Mobile Workshop. To compare your visions with those of others go to Vision Check - Mobile.